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While neither is a standout, both have the ability to get the ball to their top targets, whereas we simply can't trust Justin Fields in that department after an extremely rough first game and a half of pro action (40% completion percentage, 3.9 YPA). I'm combining these two Bears wide receiver props together with the disclaimer that this recommendation only applies if Andy Dalton or Nick Foles are under center this week. Projection: 0.9 Allen Robinson over 52.5 receiving yards (-115), Darnell Mooney over 3.5 receptions (+105) He's up to 90 INTs in 75 games played during his six seasons as a starter.
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Winston, of course, infamously tossed 30 interceptions during his most recent full season in the NFL (2019). The Saints are favored at home against the Giants this week, but New York has a pretty good defense, led by a terrific perimeter corner duo ( James Bradberry and Adoree' Jackson).
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Plus money on Winston to throw one interception? Yes, please! Winston has avoided an interception in two of three games this season, but he did toss two in the team's only loss at Carolina in Week 2. Projection: 38 Jameis Winston over 0.5 INTs (+120) Editor's Picks Tampa Bay has faced 24 tight end targets this season (ninth most) and has allowed 21 receptions (second most) and 193 yards (10th most). Smith isn't running as many routes as expected (15.0 per game), but his 14% target share is enough to get him to 26 yards in a game New England should be throwing the ball plenty. The exception was a 4-yard effort last week, though he hit a season high with six targets in the game. The two hits were 42 yards on five targets in Week 1 and 28 yards on five targets in Week 2. Smith has cleared this mark in two of three games since joining the Patriots. Projection: 1.2 passing TDs, 1.0 INT on 41 attempts Jonnu Smith over 25.5 receiving yards (-115) Jones has yet to clear one passing TD in a single game this season, and playcalling is a main culprit here, because while Jones ranks seventh in pass attempts, New England's expected passing TD total (2.8) is seventh lowest in the league. Jones' heavy pass volume makes an interception more likely (he had three in Week 3 after zero during Weeks 1-2), and the Buccaneers are currently fourth in the league with four INTs (this same defense ranked seventh with 15 INTs in 2020). He's a good bet to reach 38 again this week, considering New England is an underdog (which suggests a pass-friendly game script) and because teams don't rush against Tampa Bay's dominant run defense (the Buccaneers have faced a league-high 144 pass attempts this season, including 38-plus in all three games). Jones has attempted at least 30 pass attempts in all three of his NFL games, including at least 38 in two of the three.
We hit on both Jones props last week, so why not go for the trifecta in Week 4? Jones is at home against a terrific Buccaneers team this week, and while all eyes are on Tom Brady, the betting edge comes from Jones' player props.
*Assuming $100 bet on all recommended props
This week's best bets are listed below, in no particular order.įor thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our recent staff roundtable on the topic. Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays.
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